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Job-seeking behaviour among professionals in Ireland now stands at 19.1%, representing a seven percentage point year-on-year decrease, which is significant.
This decline is being driven by the same factors contributing to subdued job numbers in the market: macro-level uncertainty and an elevated perception of risk. Ongoing forecasts of a potential AI bubble throughout 2025, continuous commentary around productivity gains from AI, and expectations of reduced hiring rather than outright job losses are all contributing to caution. This is compounded by broader macro and geopolitical uncertainty, including nervousness around tariffs.
A consistent element of human behaviour is risk aversion during periods of uncertainty: the “better the devil you know” effect. Professionals are more likely to put their heads down and focus on existing roles rather than exploring external opportunities. This dynamic is mirrored at organisational level, where boards are holding back on investment in people in the expectation of AI-driven productivity gains. While these gains are not yet materially evident, the anticipation alone is dampening the flow of new roles into the market. Both individuals and organisations are responding similarly to macro uncertainty, holding back on movement and investment, respectively, two sides of the same coin.
Of those exhibiting job-seeking activity, 9% actually changed roles last year. For a company with 100 employees, a normalised turnover rate suggests a loss of 9–10 people annually. This number can be used to benchmark a company’s current turnover rate against the norm.
Barden’s National Talent Monitor is a quarterly snapshot of Ireland’s private enterprise professional workforce, covering all major professions including accounting, engineering, analytics, administration, legal, engineering and beyond. You can view our full H1 2026 National Talent Monitor here>>>>