Is your company planning to increase headcount in 2026?

I recently posted a poll asking the question:
Is your company planning to increase headcount in 2026?

60% of respondents said yes, while 40% said no.

As a reference point, a recent Ibec study showed that 37% of companies plan to increase headcount in 2026, down from 41% in 2025 and 45% in 2024. Our poll suggests sentiment around headcount increases is slightly more positive than the 37% reported by Ibec.

Over the last three years, there has been an obvious dampening in hiring sentiment. While some companies are considering increasing headcount, other factors, like talent movement, are shaping the market.

Back in 2022, the job market was incredibly robust, with a material percentage of individuals changing roles during the post-COVID boom. Now, more than three years on, people are becoming a little more restless in their roles and are more likely to look externally if their career needs and ambitions aren’t being met internally.

There’s a phenomenon called the domino effect in a normalised market. It’s not directly related to job creation but occurs when someone leaves a role, prompting a chain of external hires to replace them. For example, if Mary leaves Company A for Company B, Company A hires Jimmy from Company C, and Company C now needs to replace Jimmy, and so on. This domino effect drives movement in the market even when headcount isn’t increasing.

While the domino effect exists in normal markets, we haven’t had a truly normal market for some time. Macro risk factors in recent years have made individuals more risk-averse; they often stick with what they know rather than moving externally. However, we are beginning to see more requests for advisory calls from talent, suggesting restlessness and the potential for the domino effect to become a bigger factor in 2026.

Other factors are also influencing the market. For example, tech sector redundancies in 2024 and early 2025 affected sentiment, but that issue has largely subsided. Some graduate hiring has reduced, driven by factors such as private equity pressures on professional services firms and cost-cutting measures, not solely by AI. While AI is being discussed in relation to jobs and productivity, its real-world impact on employment to date has been limited, and the extent to which it will accelerate this year remains uncertain.

In short, headcount increases might remain muted in 2026, but attrition and the domino effect of professionals moving roles could have a bigger impact on the employment market than outright growth. Leaders need to be aware of this dynamic and plan for talent retention as much as they plan for recruitment.

At Barden, our advisory team works with clients on a case-by-case basis to develop controls tailored to their specific processes and needs. If this would be helpful, reach out to me at ed.heffernan@barden.ie

*Sources: Ibec Publishes its HR Update – Pay and Resourcing Forecast Report 2025